Https://www.facebook.com/horneyenews By Ahmed Jama | Horn Eye For decades, the maps sat untouched. Long before Somalia’s state collapsed in 1991, geological surveys conducted by international energy companies suggested that the country possessed significant untapped hydrocarbon potential. Promising offshore structures along the Indian Ocean coast and onshore prospects in Puntland attracted quiet interest from energy firms across the globe. Then came civil war. As the Somali state disintegrated, exploration plans vanished, investments disappeared, and the country’s geological promise was placed on hold. For more than three decades, Somalia’s oil potential remained little more than a collection of forgotten reports stored in offices across Europe and North America. Today, those maps are being unfolded once again. A New Energy Frontier Somalia in 2026 remains a country facing serious security and political challenges. Al-Shabaab continues to pose a threat, while political disagreements between federal and regional authorities frequently disrupt governance. Yet the country is also changing. Infrastructure projects are expanding, international engagement is increasing, and foreign investors are beginning to examine opportunities that once seemed impossible. Among them are energy companies seeking access to one of Africa’s least explored hydrocarbon frontiers. The Federal Government of Somalia has taken steps toward issuing petroleum exploration licenses and establishing legal frameworks for resource management. Energy experts, lawyers, and investors are increasingly paying attention to developments in Mogadishu. But the critical question remains: Is Somalia institutionally prepared for the opportunities and risks that oil development brings? What Lies Beneath? No one can yet say with certainty how much oil or gas Somalia possesses. Most geological assessments rely on surveys conducted decades ago and modern satellite analysis rather than extensive drilling. Nevertheless, several areas continue to attract significant interest. The Puntland Basin in northeastern Somalia has long been viewed as one of the country’s most promising onshore prospects. Offshore, the vast Somali Basin has drawn comparisons to gas-rich regions off Mozambique and Tanzania, where major discoveries transformed regional energy dynamics. Additionally, geological formations extending from Ethiopia’s Ogaden Basin into Somali territory suggest further hydrocarbon potential. These remain possibilities rather than proven reserves. Yet even the prospect of substantial discoveries is enough to attract international exploration capital. The Political Challenge Somalia’s greatest obstacle may not be geology—it may be politics. The country’s federal system has yet to fully resolve how natural resource revenues should be shared between the Federal Government and regional administrations. Puntland has historically argued that resources within its territory should largely remain under regional control, while Mogadishu maintains that national resources must be managed through federal institutions. Such disagreements could become significantly more intense if commercially viable oil reserves are confirmed. History shows that disputes over resource ownership have fueled instability in many countries. Without a transparent and widely accepted revenue-sharing framework, future discoveries could deepen political divisions rather than strengthen national unity. Learning From Africa’s Experience Somalia does not need to search far for lessons. Nigeria’s vast oil wealth generated billions of dollars in revenue but also contributed to environmental degradation, corruption, and conflict in the Niger Delta. South Sudan entered independence with major oil reserves but quickly descended into civil war, with petroleum revenues becoming part of the conflict. Economists refer to this phenomenon as the “resource curse”—the tendency for some resource-rich countries to experience weaker institutions, corruption, and political instability despite their natural wealth. Yet the outcome is not inevitable. Botswana successfully transformed diamond revenues into one of Africa’s strongest economies. Norway used oil wealth to create a sovereign wealth fund that benefits future generations. Ghana’s management of offshore petroleum resources has also provided valuable lessons in transparency and governance. The difference has consistently been institutional strength and accountability. What Somalia Must Do Before large-scale petroleum development can proceed responsibly, several conditions must be met. First, Somalia needs a legally binding revenue-sharing agreement between the Federal Government and regional states. Second, petroleum contracts must be transparent and publicly accessible to ensure public trust. Third, independent oversight institutions should be established to monitor revenues and prevent corruption. Finally, security improvements remain essential. International energy companies are unlikely to commit significant investments without confidence in long-term stability. These foundations must be built before major oil revenues arrive—not afterward. The Real Question Ultimately, Somalia’s petroleum future is not about oil. It is about governance. Will future revenues improve education, healthcare, infrastructure, and job creation? Or will they become another source of political competition and elite enrichment? For ordinary Somalis—from market traders in Mogadishu to pastoralists facing recurring droughts in rural regions—the value of oil will not be measured in barrels or export figures. It will be measured in whether their lives improve. Somalia has a rare opportunity. Unlike many countries that stumbled into resource wealth unprepared, it can learn from both the successes and failures of others. The maps have been reopened. Investors are returning. Decisions being made today in government offices and negotiation rooms could shape Somalia’s future for generations. Whether oil becomes a blessing or a curse will depend not on what lies beneath the ground, but on the choices made above it. Post navigation Black Gold Beneath the Sand: Somalia’s Oil Future Hangs in the Balance Did Israel Just Turn Somaliland Into the Horn of Africa’s Most Dangerous Piece of Real Estate?
